Russia’s sheer mass proves too much for Ukraine in Avdiivka

The Russian advance into the ruins of the city of Avdiivka was only a matter of time.

Ukrainian forces were vastly outnumbered and had suffered a daily onslaught since October, in a city that has been on the frontlines since Russian-backed separatists launched a rebellion against Kyiv in the spring of 2014.

The Russians have sustained huge losses in men and material since beginning their fall drive against the city, where some 1,000 civilians have clung on despite constant attempts by the Donetsk authorities to persuade them to leave. In December, US officials estimated that the Russian military had suffered more than 13,000 casualties along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis in just a few weeks.

The Russians began the assault on the city with heavy armor but sustained heavy losses, in part because of accurate Ukrainian drone attacks. More recently they changed tactics, sending dozens of small squads of infantry into the city to fight at close quarters.

The Ukrainian military acknowledged in December that the concentration of Russian forces would ultimately prevail. Then Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, said that “the enemy has the ability to concentrate its forces, including artillery and aviation, in one direction or another. And they can make it so that in two-three months the town [Avdiivka] will have the same fate as Bakhmut,” which ultimately fell in the spring.

On Friday, Maksym Zhoryn, the deputy commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade, said his men were outnumbered 15 to one and that the Russians had sent seven brigades, totalling about 15,000 men, into the fight.

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Ultimately, the sheer mass of Russian forces, along with their aerial superiority, left the defense of the city untenable, and threatened to encircle the Ukrainian brigades still defending it. Ukraine’s new commander in chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, ordered a withdrawal, and according to the Institute for the Study of War, “the continued marginal rate of Russian advance in and around Avdiivka suggests that Ukrainian forces are currently conducting a relatively controlled withdrawal from Avdiivka.”

The Ukrainian withdrawal to more favorable defensive lines appears to have come at a cost, as Russian units mined some routes. And ISW warns that “Ukrainian forces may have to stabilize the frontline by counter-attacking in the area where Russian forces are trying to close the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka in order to conduct an orderly withdrawal.”

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